2020 Season: Week 6 Boom/Bust (PPR)


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Charles Herrmann (@HermsNFL)
The Lateral Chief Editor

Malcolm McMillan (@McLateralFF)
The Lateral Writer

Boom/Bust (or Love/Hate if you are the Talented Mr. Roto) is a fantasy football classic, but in case you are new to the game, here is the gist:

Every week, we will look at the FantasyPros ECR projected points, and pick a player at each position that we think will outperform their projections (boom), or fall short of expectations (bust), during Sunday's games. [EDITOR'S NOTE: The FantasyPros ECR projected points listed are those at the time of writing and may change as the week progresses.]

That is really all there is to it. Largely, this is based on match-ups, but we could potentially see a projection that seems flawed and factor that in as well. No need to re-invent the wheel on this one.

Week 6 Boom/Bust (PPR)

Week 6 Booms

Quarterback (QB)

CH: Jared Goff (17.0 projected points)

Despite a pair of rough games, Goff has been solid on the year so far and the 49ers are a bottom 12 DST vs QBs. As long as the San Francisco defense is banged up they are a matchup worth exploiting plain and simple. I wouldn't expect much more than 17 points but something in the neighborhood of 20-24 puts Goff in the streaming range at QB.

MM: Kyle Allen (12.7 projected points)

Look, I had this nailed last week... until Allen went down with an injury against the Rams and was replaced by a not at all game ready Alex Smith. Luckily, Allen is now cleared to start against a Giants team that should be an easier match-up than the Rams were in Week 5. Am I saying he will be a QB1? No. Will he definitely beat this projection? Yes.

Running Back (RB)

CH: D'Andre Swift (8.7 projected points)

I wrote about the Lions' RBBC a little while back now and noted that Swift is the only Lions back that has any sort of PPR value. In a game going up against a Jacksonville defense that gets absolutely pounded (insert obligatory Malcolm "they're a bunch of JAGs" joke) by RBs, this could be a big opportunity for Swift to get double-digit touches and reach a score worthy of a redraft sell-high. I'm betting on that to happen and would recommend promptly sifting through your league to find an RB needy squad who you could coax into taking on Swift.

MM: Frank Gore (5.8 projected points)

With Le'Veon Bell gone from the Jets, it is officially the Frank Gore show, at least for this week. Sure, their offensive line is awful, Gore gets no work in the passing game, and I prefer the long-term pick of La'Mical Perine if you want a Jets RB (though I would avoid both in redraft unless you really think Gase gets fired next week), but this is about beating a weekly projection, and I expect double digit touches for Gore this week. Given the opportunity and the fact that the Dolphins give up 28+ PPG to RBs, Gore is highly likely to beat this projection, and has a shot at doubling up on it.

Wide Receiver (WR)

CH: Chase Claypool (11.8 projected points) 

Going up against a putrid Browns defense allowing the 3rd most points to opposing WRs on a Steelers team that will be without WR Diontae Johnson puts Claypool in an excellent position to capitalize on last week's mega-performance and solidify his role in the Pittsburgh offense. Not much to overthink here.

MM: Preston Williams (9.1 projected points)

Despite the odd week or two of Isaiah Ford's relevance, the depth chart has been pretty clear in Miami, with Preston Williams as the WR2 on the Dolphins. This is not the most amazing match-up, as the Jets are significantly worse against the run than the pass, but QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been Fitzmagic for the most part this season, and Williams may finally have resumed the form fantasy managers were hoping for after an excellent performance in Week 5 against the San Francisco 49ers.

Tight End (TE)

CH: Irv Smith Jr. (5.8 projected points)

A bit of homework copying once again here, but it's important to note the uptick Smith Jr. saw in routes run against Seattle per numberFire's Jim Sannes. I'm hoping this is the beginning of the Irv breakout I predicted to open the season for selfish purposes. Another name to watch is Houston TE Darren Fells as a nice TD-or-bust option if teammate Jordan Akins misses tomorrow's action.

MM: Irv Smith Jr. (5.8 projected points)

I rated Smith Jr. as a "bench" in this week's Start/Flex/Bench, and I stand by that, but nobody is a better boom candidate than Irv Smith Jr. this week. The Falcons have allowed more TDs to TE than any team in the league, and Smith Jr. may have finally gotten a leg up on fellow TE Kyle Rudolph after last week's TE12 performance

The obvious risk here is Rudolph could resume being the more targeted TE in Week 6, which he has been in three of Minnesota's five games so far. Also, only Rudolph has a TD between the two TEs, so there is serious concern that Rudolph kills Smith Jr.'s value.

Defense/Special Teams (DST)

CH: Washington Football Team (7.3 projected points)

This one is pretty lazy, but I don't anticipate Giants QB Daniel Jones responding well to the WFT pass rush and we should see plenty of sacks and potential for forced turnovers. Not a whole lot to say other than the Giants aren't particularly great and this is an easy stream.

MM: Tennessee Titans (6.3 projected points)

Are we sure Houston has turned a corner? Is Romeo Crennel really the answer? Or are the Jacksonville JAGs just a bunch of JAGs? I am betting on the latter here, and Tennessee just made Buffalo look like the pretender they were before this year than the contender they looked like through four weeks. That dominant performance still only turned into 8 points, so there is a chance this is more a good performance than a boom, but the turnover upside is definitely there for this Titans defense.

Kicker (K)

CH: Cody Parkey (6.8 projected points)

Over/unders and whatnot tells me that Browns K Cody Parkey (2.3% rostered on ESPN) should once again see some big opportunity in a high-scoring affair.

MM: Randy Bullock (7.0 projected points)

This is not a good match-up, but Bullock has still been one of the best kickers in the league through five weeks, and made the most of his lone opportunity in Week 5. I think the fact that the Colts offense has not been good should give Cincinnati more opportunities than they got in Week 5 against the Ravens, and if the excellent Colts defense stops some of those opportunities short, it will mean we see a lot more of Bullock coming out to kick this week. 

Week 6 Busts

Quarterback (QB)

CH: Tom Brady (19.0 projected points)

Yeah, I'm with Malcolm on this one. The Packers DST is pretty solid and it's still a weird up-and-down Tampa offense without having seen all the expected studs out there and healthy at Brady's disposal. This game will be telling for the future of the Bucs offense, but I don't know how comfortable I'd feel rolling out an aging Brady in this large of a get right game.

MM: Tom Brady (19.0 projected points)

This one is a risky play, given that even with Week 5's baffling performance against Da Bears, Brady has been QB7 so far this season. Plus, this week, he potentially gets all of his weapons back, so it is really tough to justify the bust here. However, I limit my bust picks to QB1-QB12, and the top-12 QBs have decent match-ups this week, and QBs Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, and Josh Allen add too much value with their legs. So give me Brady coming off a bad week, going up against a Packers defense that embarrassed Matt Ryan in Week 4 and has been surprisingly good against QBs this season.

Running Back (RB)

CH: Joe Mixon (16.9 projected points)

Facing the Colts' 5th toughest run defense behind that bad of an offensive line is going to be tough for Mixon. If you missed the first buy-low window, there's another one comin'.

MM: Kareem Hunt (19.7 projected points)

The Steelers are still doing a good job at limiting RBs, so even with Miles Sanders finding the end zone twice against them last week en route to a RB2 performance, I am still counting on the Pittsburgh defense shutting down Hunt and letting QB Baker Mayfield try and beat them. Hunt is still good enough to merit starting, but I expect him to fall short of 19.7 points, even in PPR.

Wide Receiver (WR)

CH: Mike Evans (17.1 projected points) 

Sorry, I just don't see it with WR Chris Godwin expected to be back healthy. The Packers are stingy as hell against WRs as it is.

MM: Terry McLaurin (15.1 projected points)

How on earth is McLaurin supposed to get 15+ points if Kyle Allen is projected to struggle throwing the ball? Do not get me wrong, I think the Allen projection is too low, as I mentioned earlier, but there is no evidence that McLaurin will be his preferred target. Also, Giants CB James Bradberry has held WRs Allen Robinson, Robert Woods, and Amari Cooper to less than 10 PPR points so far this season, so it may not even be a good match-up for McLaurin, regardless of who is under center.

Tight End (TE)

CH: Robert Tonyan (9.9 projected points)

It's not that I don't like the upside of Tonyan, but we haven't seen what his role will be like with WR Davante Adams returning to action. Perhaps he has carved a role out for himself with the team missing WR Allen Lazard, but I want to see it first before I trust it. I don't hate the idea of playing Tonyan necessarily but there are obvious circumstances that give me pause.

MM: Dalton Schultz (10.2 projected points)

Schultz has the worst match-up of the Top-12 projected TEs, and is a serious candidate to be forgotten by new QB Andy Dalton. Does not instill confidence that he was largely forgotten in last week's game against the New York Giants, but the Giants have held TEs to only 8 PPR PPG, so it could be a case of a bad match-up. Either way, I do not love the outlook for the Cowboys TE in Week 6.

Defense/Special Teams (DST)

CH: Kansas City Chiefs (6.9 projected points)

Against the high-flying Bills offense? No thank you. 

MM: Chicago Bears (7.1 projected points)

The Carolina Panthers have looked pretty good so far, and I think that continues at home against the Bears. A couple points to back this up: the Panthers have only turned the ball over five times, and four of those were in one game, and the Bears give up way more points on the road than at home.

Kicker (K)

CH: Joey Slye (7.7 projected points)

Over/unders and whatnot tells me that Panthers K Joey Slye may not be the greatest move.

MM: Zane Gonzalez (8.8 projected points)

Dallas has an awful defense, so expect the trend of a field goal and some extra points to continue for Gonzalez, which is a solid recipe for a bust performance in a kicker. Gonzalez is K18 through five games in 2020.

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