Zach Crutcher (@ZackyNFL) The Lateral Contributor
For Metcalf’s 2018 season that would give us a Market Share Receiving Yards of:
Nice. Or maybe not so nice. When trying to find values, we probably want to find players that reach a higher threshold. Perhaps it is unfair to count the receiving yards for a player in 7 games out but count the team’s total over 12 games. Let’s take a look at what happens if we adjust MS Receiving Yards to MS Receiving Yards per Game.
Ole Miss averaged 346.42 receiving yards per game during the 2018 season. DK Metcalf himself averaged 81.29 receiving yards per game in his 7 stats:
Looking through this lens, we can see that Metcalf's MS Receiving Yards/Game would be:
This is significantly better, it is a percentage increase of about 71.4%, meaning we nearly doubled Metcalf’s market share by taking injuries and missed games into account. DK Metcalf appears to be significantly better than it seems when looking at the raw numbers. Looking at raw market share values and per game market share values is the best way to have a rounded approach. Neither method is perfect, so finding the right combination of both will help us improve our accuracy. While the raw Market Share values will be biased towards players who played more often (they say the best ability is availability!), MS per game values can be misleading due to outliers having a larger effect on the per game averages for small sample sizes. Let’s take a look at some of the wide receivers from the 2018-2020 draft classes through the lens of their Market Share Receiving Yards per Game in their rookie season as well as each player’s best MS Receiving Yards in college:
Combined MS Graph
(High and left = bad, Low and right = good).
What stands out to you?
Justin Jefferson is really really good! Just wait until his former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase joins the fray.
Terry McLaurin posted an absurd 32.77% MS Rec.Yds per game as a rookie. If he gets a quarterback other than Alex Smith, he could finally cement himself as a top 12 wide receiver
Denzel Mims was more impressive than it may initially seem, posting a middle of the pack MS RecYds/G on an offense with significantly lower passing volume. Justin Fields or Zach Wilson could be the key to unlocking Mims’ as the alpha WR that he profiles as.
Brandon Aiyuk missed 4 games as a rookie, but in the games that he did play he was incredibly impressive, on par with CeeDee Lamb among others.
- Despite QB issues and struggling with drops, Jerry Jeudy had a pretty good season and I am not concerned about him going into 2021.